3 Lincoln Drive, Bow, NH 03304 — 0.5% Cash-on-Cash

About this property

3 Lincoln Drive is a four-bedroom, two-bath single-family property in Bow, NH 03304, sitting on 1.14 acres with 1,458 square feet of living area.

The property hasn't traded in over a decade, which is a meaningful signal in a market where turnover is common. It comes with a fenced side yard, an inground pool, and a pool house structure — amenities that are genuinely rare at this price point in Bow and carry real rental appeal for families.

Inside, the layout flows from a spacious kitchen into the living area, and a partially finished lower level adds usable square footage beyond the listed 1,458. The listing is candid about condition: it needs flooring and some cosmetic work, which is exactly the kind of controllable upside a value-add investor looks for. A newer boiler reduces the near-term capital expenditure risk on the mechanical side.

Nine days on market at the time of this analysis, with no price reductions from the original list. The tax-assessed value sits at $393,400 against a $524,900 ask — a 33% premium to assessed value that's worth watching, though assessed values in New Hampshire frequently lag market conditions. The 1.14-acre lot is a tangible differentiator against the tighter parcels common in suburban Bow.

The investment case

A 0.5% cash-on-cash return sounds thin in isolation, but in Bow it represents the floor of the top-10 investment deals in the city — and the broader metrics tell a more interesting story.

List Price

$524,900

Monthly Payment (PITI+HOA)

$3,703

Principal & Interest

$2,651

Property Tax

$877

Insurance

$175

HOA

$0

PMI

$0

Est. Monthly Rent

$3,747

Estimated rent based on automated valuation of comparable listings.

Cash-on-Cash Return

0.5%

Cap Rate

8.2%

Monthly Cash Flow

$44

Gross Rent Multiplier

11.7

DSCR

1.3

The city's average cash-on-cash return is negative 10.0%. Against that backdrop, a positive $44 monthly cash flow at a $524,900 purchase price isn't a consolation prize — it's the best available outcome in this market. Every other deal in Bow's top-10 leaderboard lands at 0.5% or better, and this property sits exactly at that threshold.

The more compelling number is the 8.2% cap rate. At a net operating income of $3,572 per month, the property generates meaningful income relative to its value before debt service enters the picture. The gross rent multiplier of 11.7 reflects a purchase price that's reasonable relative to estimated rent, and the debt service coverage ratio of 1.3 means the property covers its mortgage obligations with a cushion — a figure most lenders want to see above 1.2.

Monthly costs break down to $2,651 in principal and interest, $877 in property taxes, and $175 in insurance, totaling $3,703 against an estimated $3,747 in monthly rent. That $44 spread is narrow, and it assumes full occupancy with no maintenance reserves. Any vacancy or repair event erases the monthly surplus quickly. The 2.21% effective property tax rate is the single largest drag on cash flow here — at $877 per month, taxes alone consume nearly a quarter of gross rent.

Figures exclude depreciation tax benefits, which vary by individual tax situation.

Annual return outlook

The 8.8% projected total five-year ROI is built on three components, with appreciation and mortgage paydown doing the structural work that cash flow alone can't.

Cash flow contributes 0.5% of the 8.8% total — a real but modest piece. Mortgage paydown adds 4.1%, reflecting the equity accumulation that comes from a conventionally amortizing loan at 6.55% over five years. That's a predictable, compounding return that doesn't depend on market conditions.

The appreciation component — an estimated 4.2% annually — is the largest single driver at 4.2% of the total return figure. This estimate carries moderate confidence; it's based on analytical modeling rather than directly scraped transaction data, so investors should treat it as a reasonable directional assumption rather than a hard forecast. Bow's position as a desirable community with interstate access to Concord and Manchester supports the thesis, but appreciation is never guaranteed.

The practical takeaway is that this property's return profile is weighted toward equity accumulation and market appreciation rather than monthly income. An investor who needs the property to generate meaningful monthly surplus will find the $44 cash flow uncomfortable. An investor with a five-to-ten-year horizon who values equity buildup and wants a foothold in a market where positive cash flow is genuinely scarce will find the math more compelling.

The 5-year return thesis here is appreciation plus paydown, with cash flow as a break-even buffer rather than an income engine.

How it compares to nearby for-sale listings

Five active four-bedroom listings in Bow provide a direct price context for 3 Lincoln Drive, and the gap is striking.

At $524,900, this property sits well below the for-sale comp median of $815,000 — a 36% discount to the midpoint of active four-bedroom inventory in the same zip code. The closest size-comparable, a four-bed two-bath at 2,300 square feet on Page Road, is listed at $620,000. That property offers roughly 58% more square footage for an 18% price premium, which implies the Lincoln Drive ask is pricing in the condition work and the smaller footprint honestly.

On a price-per-square-foot basis, $524,900 across 1,458 square feet works out to approximately $360 per square foot. The Page Road comp at $620,000 over 2,300 square feet runs about $270 per square foot — lower on a unit basis, but a materially larger property requiring a larger capital outlay. The upper end of the comp set, at $995,000 for 4,655 square feet, is a different product category entirely.

Nine days on market is competitive with the peer set, where listings range from zero to 29 days. There's no indication of distress or price cuts. The property appears to be priced to generate interest rather than to maximize seller proceeds, which is consistent with the listing's candid acknowledgment of cosmetic needs.

Rental demand in this zip

There are no directly comparable four-bedroom rental listings in ZIP 03304 to benchmark against, which limits confidence in the rent projection.

Estimated monthly rent for this property is $3,747. With zero comparable four-bedroom rentals available in the 03304 ZIP code, that figure can't be cross-validated against active market listings. It's a modeled estimate, and investors should treat it accordingly.

The absence of rental comp data cuts two ways. It could mean the rental market for four-bedroom homes in Bow is thin — a risk if the property sits vacant longer than expected. It could also mean demand absorbs available units quickly enough that nothing lingers long enough to appear in comp databases. Bow's location, with direct interstate access to two major employment centers, supports the latter interpretation, but that's an inference, not a data point.

The $44 monthly cash flow is built entirely on the $3,747 rent estimate. A 5% shortfall in achieved rent — say, $3,560 per month — flips the property to negative monthly cash flow. Investors underwriting this deal should stress-test the rent assumption against their own local knowledge before closing. The pool and fenced yard are genuine amenities that could support a rent premium for the right tenant, but amenity value is hard to quantify without active comps.

Who this property suits + risks to weigh

This property suits a patient, equity-focused investor who can handle a thin monthly margin and has the appetite for light cosmetic renovation.

Best fit

The investor profile here is someone with a five-plus-year horizon who values being in a market where positive cash flow is genuinely scarce. In a city where the average deal produces negative 10% cash-on-cash, breaking even monthly while accumulating equity is a defensible position. The 4.1% mortgage paydown contribution over five years is mechanical and reliable — it doesn't require the market to cooperate. The inground pool and larger lot make this a more rentable asset than a standard four-bedroom box, particularly for families relocating to the Concord area.

The partially finished basement and cosmetic needs also create a value-add angle. An investor willing to put in flooring and light updates could push the rent estimate higher, improving cash flow without requiring structural capital expenditure.

Risks to weigh

The $44 monthly cash flow has almost no buffer. A single month of vacancy, a plumbing repair, or a pool maintenance bill erases months of surplus. The 2.21% property tax rate is structural and won't improve — at $877 per month, it's a fixed drag that limits upside even if rents grow. The tax-assessed value of $393,400 against a $524,900 purchase price is a gap worth monitoring; if assessed values catch up, the tax burden increases further. Finally, the rent estimate is unsupported by local comp data, which is the single largest underwriting risk in this deal. Investors should canvas the local market directly before committing to the $3,747 figure.