1688 Pine St Unit W201, San Francisco, CA 94109 — 30.0% Cash-on-Cash

About this property

1688 Pine St Unit W201 is a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at the Rockwell in San Francisco's 94109 ZIP, listed at $402,999 with a private patio.

The unit sits in the Rockwell building and comes with a private patio — an uncommon feature at this price point in a city where outdoor space commands a premium. At 930 square feet across two full bathrooms, the layout is functional for either owner-occupancy or tenant placement.

The critical context: this is a Below Market Rate unit administered through the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development. Eligibility carries income caps (up to $124,700 for a two-person household at 100% AMI), and the property is subject to resale controls and ongoing monitoring. The application window opens May 26, 2026, with a deadline of June 16, 2026. Temporary waivers in place loosen several standard BMR restrictions — buyers need not be first-time homebuyers under the waiver terms, and income from assets can be excluded from the household income calculation.

The tax-assessed value sits at $329,530 against a $402,999 asking price. The property has been on market 32 days with no price reduction from the original listing. Non-owner-occupied status is flagged in public records, which is relevant for investors evaluating rental intent from day one.

The investment case

Rent covering 1.6 times the total monthly payment is the headline here — in a city where the average cash-on-cash return is negative 11%, this property's 30% CoC is a structural outlier.

List Price

$402,999

Monthly Payment (PITI+HOA)

$3,454

Principal & Interest

$2,038

Property Tax

$393

Insurance

$134

HOA

$889

PMI

$0

Est. Monthly Rent

$5,467

Estimated rent based on automated valuation of comparable listings.

Cash-on-Cash Return

30.0%

Cap Rate

13.2%

Monthly Cash Flow

$2,013

Gross Rent Multiplier

6.1

DSCR

2.2

The math starts with the price. At $402,999, this property is priced at roughly 30 cents on the dollar compared to the 94109 for-sale comp median of $1,350,000. That discount is entirely a function of the BMR program's income and resale restrictions — not a distressed asset or hidden defect.

Estimated monthly rent comes in at $5,467. Against a total monthly payment of $3,454 — which includes $889 in HOA fees, $393 in property tax, and $134 in insurance — the property generates $2,013 in monthly cash flow. That's a debt service coverage ratio of 2.2, meaning rent more than doubles the mortgage obligation alone.

The cap rate of 13.2% and net operating income of $4,444 per month are figures that don't appear in San Francisco's conventional market. The city average cash-on-cash sits at negative 11%. Even the tenth-best deal on the city's leaderboard clears only 7.06% CoC — this property's 30% return is more than four times that threshold. The gross rent multiplier of 6.1 reinforces the picture: at market rents, the purchase price is recovered in just over six years of gross rent.

The HOA fee of $889 per month is the largest cost line after principal and interest. It's not trivial, and it's worth verifying what it covers — building reserves, amenities, insurance — before closing. Figures exclude depreciation tax benefits, which vary by individual tax situation.

For a cash-flow investor in San Francisco, the financial profile here is rare: positive, substantial, and built on a below-market acquisition price rather than leverage or rent speculation.

Annual return outlook

The 37.2% projected five-year total ROI is driven almost entirely by cash flow, with appreciation and mortgage paydown as secondary contributors.

Breaking down the 37.2% five-year ROI: cash flow contributes 30 percentage points, mortgage paydown adds 4.4 points, and appreciation accounts for the remaining 2.8 points. The structure is unusual — most San Francisco investment theses lean heavily on appreciation. Here, cash flow is doing the work.

The appreciation figure of approximately 2.8% annually is an estimate, not a market-data-verified figure, and should be treated as a soft assumption rather than a forecast. At that rate, a $403,000 purchase grows to roughly $463,000 over five years — meaningful, but not the primary return driver.

Mortgage paydown at 4.4% reflects the equity accumulation from principal reduction over the holding period, compounding on a relatively low purchase price. The BMR resale controls do complicate the appreciation story: resale restrictions typically cap the price appreciation a seller can realize, which could compress the actual appreciation contribution below the estimated 2.8% if those controls bind at exit.

For investors who model primarily on cash flow, that restriction matters less. The $2,013 monthly cash flow compounds over five years regardless of what the resale price ceiling looks like. The realistic risk is on the rent side — if the $5,467 rent estimate proves optimistic, the cash flow contribution shrinks accordingly, and the total ROI follows.

How it compares to nearby for-sale listings

Five active two-bedroom listings in ZIP 94109 provide a market context that makes 1688 Pine St W201's $402,999 price look structurally different from everything else available.

The for-sale comp median for two-bedroom condos in 94109 is $1,350,000. This property, at $402,999, sits 70% below that median. On a price-per-square-foot basis, the comp set ranges from units priced above $1,200 per square foot to over $1,400 — this property at 930 square feet and $403K implies roughly $433 per square foot, a fraction of the market rate.

That gap isn't a market mispricing. It's the BMR program doing exactly what it's designed to do: create below-market entry points with attached restrictions. An investor or buyer comparing this listing to 1789 Washington St at $1,595,000 or 2315 Van Ness at $1,350,000 is comparing structurally different products. The market comps carry no income eligibility requirements, no resale controls, and no monitoring obligations.

Days on market for the comp set cluster between 2 and 9 days — fast absorption that reflects genuine demand for two-bedroom units in this ZIP. At 32 days, this property has been on market longer, but the BMR application timeline (opening May 26, closing June 16) explains the lag. It's not sitting; it's waiting for its application window.

The comp table here is most useful as a ceiling, not a comparison: it shows what unrestricted two-bedroom condos in 94109 cost, which frames why the BMR discount exists and what the resale control is protecting against.

Rental demand in this zip

No directly comparable rental listings were identified in ZIP 94109 for two-bedroom units, leaving the $5,467 monthly rent estimate without local comp confirmation.

The $5,467 estimated monthly rent is the figure underpinning every cash-flow number in this analysis. With zero comparable rentals identified in the 94109 ZIP for two-bedroom units, that estimate carries meaningful uncertainty. It's not implausible — San Francisco's rental market for two-bedroom units has historically supported rents in that range — but it's unverified by a direct comp set.

Investors should treat the $5,467 figure as a ceiling estimate rather than a guaranteed market rate. Running a sensitivity analysis is straightforward: at $4,500/month, monthly cash flow drops to roughly $1,046, and the cash-on-cash return compresses significantly. At $4,000/month, the property still cash-flows positively given the low purchase price and financing cost, but the margin tightens.

The BMR structure adds a layer here worth examining: the unit is subject to resale controls, but rental restrictions may also apply depending on the MOHCD program terms. Investors should confirm with the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development whether the unit can be rented to a third party, and at what rent levels, before underwriting the $5,467 figure as achievable.

The rent estimate is the single most important assumption to stress-test before committing to this deal — the financial case is strong if it holds, and materially different if it doesn't.

Who this property suits + risks to weigh

This property fits an income-eligible buyer who can navigate a government-administered purchase process and is comfortable holding a restricted asset long-term.

Best fit

The ideal buyer here is someone who qualifies under the BMR income limits — household income at or below $124,700 for two people — and is primarily motivated by cash flow rather than appreciation upside. An owner-occupant who also plans to rent one bedroom, or a small investor who can clear the eligibility hurdles, gets access to a 30% cash-on-cash return that the open market in San Francisco doesn't offer. The low purchase price relative to market comps means the financing burden is manageable even at a 6.49% mortgage rate, which is what's driving the DSCR to 2.2.

Risks to weigh

The resale controls are the central risk. BMR units in San Francisco are typically subject to resale price restrictions that limit the seller's ability to capture open-market appreciation. If the MOHCD program caps resale appreciation below the estimated 2.8% annual figure, the five-year total ROI of 37.2% is overstated. Buyers should obtain the full resale restriction language before closing.

The rental income assumption is unverified by local comp data, as noted. The $889 monthly HOA fee is a fixed cost that doesn't flex with vacancy — if the unit sits empty for two months, the investor absorbs that cost without offset. The application process itself is a risk: the window is narrow (May 26 to June 16, 2026), loan pre-approval and homebuyer education verification are required by the deadline, and missing it means starting over.

Non-owner-occupied status is flagged in public records, which may affect lender willingness to finance under certain loan programs. Confirm financing eligibility for BMR-restricted condos with lenders before the application deadline.