15 W Cold Spring Ln, Baltimore, MD 21210 — 31.8% Cash-on-Cash

About this property

A 4-bedroom, 5-bath single-family property in Baltimore's 21210 ZIP, listed at $425,000 with 3,601 square feet on just over a third of an acre.

The listing describes a 1929 stone cottage — a construction style that typically signals thick walls, original architectural detail, and maintenance costs that differ from post-war builds. At 3,601 square feet, the layout is generous: four bedrooms, four full baths plus a half bath, a living room with fireplace, and a recreation room that adds flexibility for a tenant who needs a home office or media space.

The primary suite includes a whirlpool tub and dual vanity — finishes that support the upper end of the rental range. Off-street parking via a garage and driveway is a practical amenity that matters in a dense urban ZIP code. The lot comes in at approximately 0.36 acres, unusually large for an in-city parcel, which limits density risk on adjacent lots.

The property has been on the market four days and shows no price reduction from original list. Public records place the tax-assessed value at $603,167 — a notable 42% premium over the $425,000 asking price. That gap warrants attention: it could reflect a motivated seller, deferred maintenance not visible in the listing, or simply an aggressive municipal assessment. Either way, it's the first question to put to the seller's agent.

The investment case

Rent covers 1.7 times the total monthly payment — an unusual margin in Baltimore, where the city average cash-on-cash return sits at negative 1.4%.

List Price

$425,000

Monthly Payment (PITI+HOA)

$3,184

Principal & Interest

$2,205

Property Tax

$794

Insurance

$142

HOA

$43

PMI

$0

Est. Monthly Rent

$5,439

Estimated rent based on automated valuation of comparable listings.

Cash-on-Cash Return

31.8%

Cap Rate

14.8%

Monthly Cash Flow

$2,255

Gross Rent Multiplier

6.5

DSCR

2.4

The estimated monthly rent of $5,439 against a total monthly payment of $3,184 (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA) leaves $2,255 in monthly cash flow. Annualized, that's $27,060 before capital expenditure reserves — a figure most Baltimore landlords don't get close to.

The cash-on-cash return of 31.8% is the number that puts this deal in context. The city average CoC is negative 1.4%, meaning the typical Baltimore purchase at current rates destroys cash flow. The weakest deal in Baltimore's current top-10 leaderboard still clears 30.85% CoC — so the 21210 ZIP is producing genuinely strong cash-flow opportunities right now, and this property sits at the top of that cohort.

The cap rate of 14.8% and net operating income of $5,254 per month confirm the picture isn't dependent on leverage. Even unfinanced, the property generates strong returns. The debt service coverage ratio of 2.4 means the property produces $2.40 in NOI for every $1.00 of debt service — well above the 1.25 threshold most commercial lenders require, which matters if the investor later wants to refinance or pull equity.

The gross rent multiplier of 6.5 is low, indicating the purchase price is not stretched relative to gross rent. At a 6.66% 30-year fixed rate, the principal and interest payment comes to $2,205 on a standard 20% down conventional loan.

Figures exclude depreciation tax benefits, which vary by individual tax situation.

Annual return outlook

The 40.2% total five-year ROI is driven primarily by cash flow, with appreciation and mortgage paydown as secondary contributors.

Cash flow does the heavy lifting here: the 31.8% cash-on-cash contribution accounts for the bulk of the 40.2% total ROI projection. Mortgage paydown adds an estimated 4.5%, a passive return that compounds quietly as the tenant effectively reduces the loan balance each month.

Appreciation is projected at an estimated 3.9% annually — this figure is a modeled estimate rather than a data-scraped market trend, so it carries more uncertainty than the cash-flow components. Applied to a $425,000 purchase, 3.9% annual appreciation would add roughly $16,575 in year one, compounding to a meaningful equity position over five years. But investors who underwrite this deal should treat appreciation as a bonus, not a load-bearing assumption. The cash flow alone justifies the purchase at current rates.

The 5-year ROI breakdown — 31.8% cash flow, 3.9% appreciation, 4.5% paydown — is unusually well-distributed. Most Baltimore deals that pencil at all are appreciation plays with thin or negative cash flow. This property inverts that structure, which reduces the risk profile considerably. If appreciation underperforms, the investor still holds a cash-flowing asset. If rates drop and the property is refinanced, cash flow improves further.

The five-year case rests on cash flow first, with appreciation and paydown as upside — a more defensible structure than most comparable Baltimore listings offer.

How it compares to nearby for-sale listings

Three active 4-bedroom listings in ZIP 21210 provide a price context for this property, and the gap is significant.

At $425,000, this property is priced 38% below the for-sale comp median of $685,000 in the same ZIP. The three comparable listings range from $499,000 to $875,000 — none priced as low as this property despite similar bedroom counts.

Price per square foot tells a sharper story. At $425,000 across 3,601 square feet, the asking price works out to roughly $118 per square foot. The $685,000 comp at 2,805 square feet implies approximately $244 per square foot. The $875,000 listing at 3,857 square feet runs about $227 per square foot. This property is priced at roughly half the per-square-foot rate of its nearest comparables.

That discount is what makes the investment math work — and it's also the first risk flag. A 50% price-per-square-foot discount in a neighborhood where comps are selling at $227-$244 either reflects a genuine market opportunity or signals something the comps don't share: deferred maintenance, structural issues, or title complications. The tax-assessed value of $603,167 aligns more closely with the comp range than with the asking price, which reinforces the question of why this property is priced where it is.

The fastest-moving comp has been on the market three days; the slowest, 55 days. This property's four days on market doesn't yet signal distress or lack of demand.

Rental demand in this zip

No directly comparable 4-bedroom rentals were found in ZIP 21210, which limits the ability to cross-validate the rent estimate against local market data.

The estimated monthly rent of $5,439 is the primary input driving this deal's cash flow projection. With zero rental comps available in the 21210 ZIP for 4-bedroom properties, that estimate can't be anchored against active market listings. That's a meaningful data gap.

What it doesn't mean is that the rent is unreasonable. A 3,601-square-foot property with four bedrooms, five baths, a fireplace, and a whirlpool primary suite in a Baltimore ZIP where for-sale comps are trading at $685,000 to $875,000 is a premium product. Tenants who rent in that price tier typically have options and will pay for quality finishes and space. The $5,439 estimate implies roughly $1.51 per square foot per month, which is within a plausible range for a well-maintained large home in a higher-income urban ZIP.

The absence of rental comps cuts both ways for the investor. It could mean the market is thin and demand uncertain, or it could mean large single-family rentals in this ZIP are rare enough that comparable listings simply don't turn over frequently. Prospective buyers should independently canvas property managers active in 21210 to validate the rent assumption before closing. If the achievable rent is closer to $4,500, the cash flow drops to roughly $1,316 per month — still positive, but the CoC return compresses substantially. The rent estimate is the single most important variable to stress-test in this deal.

Who this property suits + risks to weigh

This property suits a cash-flow-focused investor comfortable with a historic property's maintenance profile and willing to verify the rent assumption before closing.

Best fit

The deal structure favors a landlord who wants current income over a speculative appreciation play. The 31.8% cash-on-cash return and 2.4 DSCR give a wide operating cushion — if a major repair hits in year one, the property can absorb it without going cash-flow negative. An investor with experience managing older homes (the 1929 build implies plumbing, electrical, and HVAC systems that may not be modern) will be better positioned than someone expecting a turnkey asset.

The non-owner-occupied designation in public records suggests the property has functioned as a rental before, which is a mild positive signal — it means the layout has been tested against tenant use, and the seller may have operating history to share.

Risks to weigh

The 42% gap between the $425,000 asking price and the $603,167 tax-assessed value is the deal's central question mark. Buyers should commission a full inspection and review any prior permits or code violations before proceeding. A 1929 stone structure can carry significant deferred maintenance costs that don't appear in listing photos.

The zero-comp rental market in 21210 means the $5,439 rent estimate is modeled, not market-tested. If the achievable rent is materially lower, the investment thesis weakens quickly. The $43/month HOA fee is modest but confirms there's a governing association — buyers should review the HOA financials and any pending assessments.

At a 6.66% rate with a $425,000 purchase, the financing is locked to current rate conditions. A buyer who needs to sell in a down market may find the buyer pool thin at this price point given the comp spread.

Strong cash flow metrics and a significant discount to assessed value make this a compelling deal on paper — the work is in verifying why the discount exists.