959 Regina Dr, Baltimore, MD 21227 — 39.3% Cash-on-Cash

About this property

959 Regina Dr is a 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhouse in Baltimore County's 21227 zip code, listed at $125,000 through an estate auction with on-site and online bidding.

The property has been in the same family for more than 50 years — a tenure that signals stability but also the likelihood of deferred cosmetic updates. The listing describes the townhouse as lovingly maintained while acknowledging it needs cosmetic repairs and updating, which is the classic setup for a value-add play. At 1,408 square feet across two stories on a 1,800-square-foot lot, the footprint is compact but functional for a 3-bed layout.

The location carries a specific logistical advantage: the listing places it immediately east of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County campus and within close proximity to both I-695 and I-95. That kind of access tends to matter for tenant sourcing.

Three days on market at the time of this analysis, with no price reduction from the original listing. The tax-assessed value sits at $199,467 — nearly $75,000 above the opening bid price of $125,000. That gap is partly a function of auction mechanics (the list price is the opening bid, not a ceiling), but it also suggests the market hasn't fully priced the property's condition into the assessed figure. Non-owner-occupied status is confirmed in public records, meaning the property has recent landlord history. Figures exclude depreciation tax benefits, which vary by individual tax situation.

The investment case

The headline metric at 959 Regina Dr is a 39.3% cash-on-cash return — the highest in zip 21227, against a zip average of 3.2%.

List Price

$125,000

Monthly Payment (PITI+HOA)

$1,094

Principal & Interest

$682

Property Tax

$120

Insurance

$42

HOA

$250

PMI

$0

Est. Monthly Rent

$1,913

Estimated rent based on automated valuation of comparable listings.

Cash-on-Cash Return

39.3%

Cap Rate

15.6%

Monthly Cash Flow

$819

Gross Rent Multiplier

5.4

DSCR

2.4

That gap isn't a rounding error. A 39.3% CoC against a 3.2% zip average means this property is generating roughly 12 times the typical cash-on-cash performance for comparable 21227 listings. The math behind it: estimated monthly rent of $1,913, total monthly payment of $1,094 (principal and interest at $682, taxes at $120, insurance at $42, HOA at $250), producing $819 in monthly cash flow.

The cap rate of 15.6% and net operating income of $1,621 per month reinforce the picture. A gross rent multiplier of 5.4 means the property pays for itself in rent in roughly five and a half years — well below what most investors would accept as a threshold. The debt service coverage ratio of 2.4 means the property generates $2.40 in NOI for every $1.00 of debt service, a cushion that gives meaningful room for vacancy or unexpected expenses without going cash-flow negative.

One cost worth flagging: the $250/month HOA fee is the single largest line item after principal and interest. That's not unusual for a townhouse community, but it's a fixed cost that doesn't compress during vacancy periods. At 20% down on a $125,000 purchase, the required upfront capital is modest, which is part of why the cash-on-cash figure runs so high. The city average CoC is listed at 0.0%, making this property an outlier even at the Baltimore-wide level.

The financial structure here is unusually strong for a sub-$130K acquisition — the risk isn't the numbers, it's the auction format and the condition unknowns.

Annual return outlook

The 5-year total ROI projection of 49.3% is driven primarily by cash flow, with appreciation and mortgage paydown as secondary contributors.

Cash flow does the heavy lifting: the 39.3% CoC contribution accounts for the bulk of the 49.3% total. Mortgage paydown adds an estimated 6.1%, reflecting principal reduction over five years at the current 6.66% rate. Appreciation contributes an estimated 3.9% annually — that figure is an LLM-based estimate rather than a scraped market data point, so treat it as a reasonable directional assumption, not a guarantee.

Even if appreciation comes in flat, the cash flow and paydown components alone produce a return profile that most Baltimore listings can't match. The 3.9% appreciation estimate is applied to a $125,000 base, so the absolute dollar contribution is modest — roughly $4,875 in year one — but it compounds meaningfully over five years on an asset with this cost basis.

The auction format introduces one meaningful variable: the final purchase price could exceed $125,000 if competitive bidding pushes it higher. Every $10,000 increase in the final price compresses the CoC return and extends the payback period. Investors should model their target return at multiple price points before bidding, not just at the opening bid.

How it compares to nearby for-sale listings

Four active 3-bedroom listings in zip 21227 provide a pricing context, with a comp median of $335,000 — nearly three times the opening bid at 959 Regina Dr.

At $125,000, this property sits 62.7% below the for-sale comp median of $335,000 in the same zip. Even the lowest-priced active comp — a 1,024-square-foot, 3-bed/1-bath at $200,000 — lists at 60% above the opening bid here. On a price-per-square-foot basis, 959 Regina Dr at $125,000 across 1,408 square feet works out to roughly $89/sqft. The nearest comp by size, a 1,152-sqft property at $240,000, runs approximately $208/sqft — more than double.

That spread reflects two things: the auction format depresses the stated price (again, $125K is the opening bid, not the expected close), and the property's cosmetic condition creates a discount relative to market-ready listings. The tax-assessed value of $199,467 is a more realistic anchor for what the market believes the property is worth in its current state.

Days on market across the comp set are tight — three to five days for all four listings — suggesting the 21227 market is moving. That's a positive signal for both resale liquidity and rental demand, though it doesn't directly predict where the auction will clear.

Rental demand in this zip

Rental comp data for 3-bedroom units in zip 21227 is limited, with zero comparable rentals identified in the immediate area.

The estimated monthly rent of $1,913 is the primary cash-flow input, but it carries a confidence caveat: there are no directly comparable rental listings in zip 21227 with 3 bedrooms available to benchmark against. That absence cuts both ways. It could mean the rental market is tight and units don't sit long enough to appear in comp databases, which would support the rent estimate. It could also mean the estimate is extrapolated from a broader geography and may not reflect hyperlocal conditions precisely.

At $1,913/month, the implied rent-to-price ratio on the $125,000 opening bid is approximately 1.53% — well above the 1% threshold that many investors use as a minimum screen for cash-flow viability. Even if actual achievable rent came in 10% below the estimate at roughly $1,720, the property would still generate positive monthly cash flow after the $1,094 in total payments.

The property's proximity to a major university campus, as noted in the listing, is a demand signal worth tracking. Student and staff housing demand near large campuses tends to be consistent, though investor-grade due diligence should include a direct rental market survey before closing.

Who this property suits + risks to weigh

This property fits an experienced value-add buyer comfortable with auction mechanics and light renovation risk — not a passive investor looking for a turnkey asset.

Best fit

The investor profile here is someone who can move quickly, has renovation experience or reliable contractor access, and understands that the $125,000 opening bid is a floor, not a price. The CoC return of 39.3% and $819 monthly cash flow are compelling on paper, but they're predicated on achieving the estimated $1,913 rent in a zip where rental comps are thin. A buyer who can independently verify local rent levels before auction day is better positioned than one relying solely on the estimate.

The non-owner-occupied history suggests the property has functioned as a rental before, which reduces the uncertainty around tenant-readiness somewhat. The HOA at $250/month is a fixed drag that a buyer should confirm includes or excludes before bidding — HOA scope varies widely in townhouse communities and can affect maintenance obligations meaningfully.

Risks to weigh

Auction format risk is the most immediate: competitive bidding can erode returns quickly. At $150,000 final price, the CoC compresses; at $175,000, it compresses further. The cosmetic repair and updating need described in the listing adds renovation cost that isn't reflected in the financial model above — that's a buyer-funded variable. The $199,467 tax-assessed value versus the $125,000 opening bid is a useful ceiling reference, but assessed values lag market conditions and shouldn't be treated as a guaranteed resale floor. The absence of rental comps in the zip means the $1,913 rent estimate carries real uncertainty that should be stress-tested before committing capital.